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Predicting Success

New research from Angela Duckworth, the Christopher H. Browne Distinguished Professor of Psychology in Penn’s School of Arts and Sciences, and colleagues at Duke University and the United States Military Academy reveals that the answer to the question “What predicts success?” may not be so straightforward. The researchers published their findings in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

In 2007, Dr. Duckworth published a paper showing for the first time that grit was an important predictor of accomplishment. She continued collaborating with West Point, eventually collecting data on 11,258 cadets who were part of nine separate classes that entered the military academy over the course of a decade. 

For each student, the researchers looked at grit score as measured by the Grit Scale created by Dr. Duckworth, entrance exams, and results from a battery of fitness tests each West Point hopeful must take before being admitted. West Point also provided data on whether cadets completed the Beast Barracks training (a six-week initiation during the summer preceding classes) and graduated from the academy, as well as their GPAs for academic, military and physical performance. Dr. Duckworth and colleagues then conducted a mega-analysis incorporating all these data. 

Dr. Duckworth and her team discovered that different personal characteristics predict different outcomes. During Beast Barracks, for example, grit is crucial. “The grittier you are, the less likely you are to drop out during that very discouraging time,” Dr. Duckworth explained, referring to Beast Barracks. But during the four years of combined classroom time and physical training that follow, cognitive ability is the strongest predictor of academic grades. Finally, grit and physical ability play a greater role than cognitive ability in determining who will graduate from West Point in four years versus who might leave before then. 

What are the practical implications, particularly for fields like human resources or university admissions? Employers and schools tend to emphasize cognitive abilities in their search process because objective tests like the SAT let them easily measure one candidate against another. But for noncognitive attributes, objective tests are lacking. 

The findings add to the canon of overall knowledge about what factors predict success. They also strengthen Dr. Duckworth’s original theories about grit and, at the same time, highlight other attributes that are key to long-term achievement. “If you want to lead a happy, healthy, helpful life,” she said, “you want to cultivate many aspects of your character, like honesty, kindness, generosity, curiosity”—and, of course, grit. 

For the complete story, visit https://tinyurl.com/Duckworthsuccess

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