The outlook for the pandemic and the U.S. economy hinges on the pace of COVID-19 vaccinations this year. The Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania today released a report on the health and economic effects of reducing COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, following up on a recent analysis of vaccination’s projected economic and epidemiological impact. PWBM analyzes how two types of behaviors—hesitancy to get vaccinated and social distancing—will affect the pandemic and the economy in 2021.

PWBM estimates that by the end of 2021, social contact rates (the frequency of close physical proximity to other persons outside the home) will return to 70 percent of pre-COVID levels and 25 percent of eligible U.S. residents will choose to remain unvaccinated.

If instead all eligible residents are vaccinated, PWBM projects a cumulative 5.3 million to 8.3 million fewer cases in 2021, 2.6 million new jobs by December 2021, and a 2 percentage point increase in Q4 2020 to Q4 2021 GDP growth.

If vaccine hesitancy persists and people optimistically increase social contact rates beyond 70 percent, a “perfect storm” emerges. If social contact rates rise to 85 percent of pre-COVID levels, PWBM projects up to 4.6 million additional coronavirus cases in 2021.

Read the full text at https://tinyurl.com/projectedvaccinehesitancy.